Spain’s National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) has cautioned that proposed government regulations for the 2026/2027 olive oil campaign pose significant risks to market competition and could drive up consumer prices.
The regulatory report examines a draft ministerial order designed to manage potential overproduction in the upcoming harvest. Under the proposed rule, the Spanish government could mandate a market withdrawal of olive oil if total initial stocks and projected seasonal production reach at least 120% of the average of the two highest sales levels recorded over the past six harvests. The compulsory withdrawal would be capped at 20% of estimated production.
While acknowledging that olive oil is a strategic sector for Spain—the world’s leading producer and exporter—the antitrust authority warned that supply restrictions inherently disrupt competitive market dynamics. Withholding supply limits available volumes, potentially reducing product quality and variety while inflating retail prices. The CNMC emphasized that such price spikes would disproportionately harm lower-income households.
To mitigate competitive harm, the watchdog urged the government to thoroughly justify any future intervention using comprehensive trade and demand data to prove that an extraordinary surplus exists. The CNMC advised that any withdrawal must strictly adhere to the principle of minimal necessary restriction. Furthermore, regulators recommended limiting withdrawals to specific product categories rather than applying blanket measures across all grades.
The competition body also raised concerns over regulatory clarity regarding affected market participants. It called for explicit, non-discriminatory criteria to resolve ambiguities surrounding potential exemptions for small-scale oil mills. The regulator stressed that monitoring mechanisms must be established prior to activation to prevent sensitive commercial data exchanges among competing producers, alongside clear criteria to roll back the restrictions if market conditions shift.
As an independent consulting body under Spanish law, the CNMC issues regulatory assessments to ensure legislative proposals align with free-market principles and consumer protection standards.