LONDON — The Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) today began a high-stakes trial in Spreadex Limited v Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), a case that tests the limits of the regulator’s power to enforce structural remedies in niche markets. Spreadex is seeking to quash a CMA mandate requiring the divestiture of Sporting Index, an acquisition the regulator claims created a “monopoly” in the UK’s online sports spread betting sector.
Legal Exposure and Counterfactual Dispute
The proceedings, presided over by Mr. Justice Saini, center on the CMA’s “Remittal Final Report” issued in September 2025. Spreadex argues that the regulator’s assessment of the “counterfactual”—the scenario of what would have happened without the merger—is logically flawed. Specifically, Spreadex alleges the CMA failed to properly analyze “compound probabilities,” or the likelihood of multiple independent events occurring simultaneously to ensure Sporting Index remained a viable competitor.
If the CAT rules in favor of Spreadex, it could set a significant precedent regarding the “standard of proof” required for regulators when predicting future market entry or the survival of loss-making entities. Conversely, a victory for the CMA would solidify its aggressive stance on “Phase 2” structural remedies, even when dealing with smaller, highly specialized markets where the combined entity holds a 100% share of supply.
Investor and Market Implications
While Spreadex remains a private entity, the outcome is being closely monitored by institutional investors and private equity firms active in the UK gaming and fintech sectors. A forced sale of Sporting Index to a “CMA-approved buyer” could result in a fire-sale valuation, significantly impacting Spreadex’s balance sheet.
“We found that the merger substantially lessens competition by removing Spreadex’s only competitor,” stated an independent CMA panel following its remittal inquiry. “The only effective remedy would be for Spreadex to sell Sporting Index to restore competition.”
The trial is estimated to last two days. Should Spreadex fail, it will be legally obligated to proceed with the divestiture under the “Final Undertakings” accepted by the CMA in October 2025.