The Competition Commission has announced the completion of two comprehensive research studies examining price formation mechanisms in the extra virgin olive oil market, covering both the production level and the domestic retail sector. The studies were prepared by Ioanna Christodoulaki and Athanasios Dimas of the Commission’s Market Mapping and Research Department, in collaboration with academics from the University of Ioannina and the Laboratory of Informatics Applications and Computational Economics (EEPYO).
Using advanced econometric models, the research analyzes price developments and competitive dynamics across different stages of the olive oil value chain. The studies build on the HCC Datathon held in June 2025, an initiative aimed at promoting the practical use of data analysis in the extra virgin olive oil market.
The first study, “Price Dependence among the Major EU Extra Virgin Olive Oil Markets,” examines the interdependence of producer prices in Greece, Italy, and Spain. The findings identify Spain as the dominant price setter in the Mediterranean region. Greek producer prices appear to follow Spanish price trends in the long run, while Italy plays a key role in transmitting short-term price volatility, reacting more sharply to market shocks.
The second study, “Price Connectedness in the Extra Virgin Olive Oil Retail Market in Greece,” focuses on pricing behavior in the Greek supermarket sector. Based on quantile regressions of final selling prices across four major retail chains, the analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in pricing strategies, both across supermarkets and individual products. Importantly, the results do not indicate coordinated behavior among retailers, as price interactions vary depending on price levels and display asymmetric competitive responses.
Together, the studies provide valuable insights into price dynamics and competition in a strategically important agricultural and consumer market.